Monday, April 03, 2006

Statistics and Probability Twirly Stuff

There is one flat above my office. At the rear of the office is a small, private car park for the use of staff in our office (4 max), our clients and other visitors (varies, rarely more than one at a time) and, when we are not there, the cars of the upstairs residents and their friends. Because I live nearby, I often park in there, as parking in the street is dodgy and often impossible.

I was amazed to realise the other day, that there were only 2 cars parked there, mine and someone from the upstairs flat, and we both had car registration numbers beginning with 'P205'. This started me thinking about co-incidences and probability and I have been trying to work out the odds of two cars parking in the same private car park having the same 4 digits of registration number. The trouble is, I don't know how to work it out, or what information I need. I have found out that there are 27,028,000 taxed cars in UK. Of those, 1,854 have registration numbers beginning P205. That is a ratio of 14578:1. I do not know whether this information is relevant. I suppose I have to look at ALL the people with that number who could possibly have parked there at that time.. Do I? I dunno. Is there anyone out there who knows how to calculate this stuff?

The whole idea of coincidences thrills me. I sometimes think that there must be a parallel universe which bends near and far from us, and when it touches, we get a coincidence. That would explain sooo much. I mean, the way that Neil and I met was the result of a bizarre set of circumstances that would not normally all occur together. Because they did, I met the love of my life. Is is any wonder that people believe in fate, or a controllling deity?

Doesn't it make your brain go twirly? Does mine.